This Week in Dual-Use

NEWS

Anthropic’s Mythos AI model could be weaponised

Anthropic released a powerful new version of its Claude AI model, called Mythos. Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s CEO, said it is too powerful to be made generally available. Instead he will allow only a few trusted companies to use it.

This is an interesting development in the Anthropic vs Trump administration saga. Amodei has previously butted heads with the Department of War over his refusal to allow unfettered use of Anthropic’s models for military purposes. The White House has been trying to punish Anthropic by blacklisting it, but has been frustrated by a series of split court rulings.

The release of Mythos tips the balance back towards Amodei. The administration appears increasingly concerned that blacklisting Anthropic during the ongoing US-Iran conflict would be a gift to China. The US military is understandably keen to use its breakthrough cybersecurity capabilities.

We again see the concentration of critical national security capability in the hands of another billionaire. Just as Elon Musk is at liberty to turn Starlink on or off for Ukrainians or Russians, Amodei could now decide who can access a strategically consequential capability. And on what terms.

I predict a similar scenario for quantum computing. A few decades ago quantum technology would have been government-owned, like the Manhattan Project. But birth of the venture capital industry has enabled scientists to become founders.

The first company to produce a useful quantum computer will face the same pressure to gate access, balancing commercial incentives against national security imperatives. In doing so, it will become an unelected arbiter of geopolitical power.

Russian submarines spy on data cables

Russian submarines apparently tried to spy on underwater data cables in and around UK waters while the world was distracted by Iran. A Royal Navy frigate and other assets were deployed to track three Russian submarines operating north of the UK.

For the Royal Navy, this is a return to familiar waters. After two decades of sandy counterinsurgency, an underwater conflict with a near-peer is a welcome reversion.

But this is not a simple replay of the Cold War. Russia has fused traditional submarine operations with grey-zone tactics. It has been mapping and damaging undersea cables, blurring the line between espionage and attack.

What is different this time is the emerging toolkit. A new generation of early-stage companies is building autonomous underwater systems that can operate at lower cost than crewed submarines and be deployed at scale.

I suspect that, in the near term at least, these platforms won’t replace submarines. But they will augment them, increasing coverage and creating a more distributed underwater battlespace.

Over time, the advantage may shift to those who can saturate the water column with autonomous assets, turning what was once the preserve of exquisite platforms into a contested, data-rich domain.

Russia’s robotic mortar

Russia is adding a robotic mortar system to its artillery fleet, extending indirect fire capability into its unmanned ground lineup. The Kuryer combat robot has an automated turret and integrated reloading system.

There was a time when burly moustachioed men lugged metal tubes into battle, assembling the composite parts into an elegant bomb lobber at a moment’s notice. It takes a special breed of soldier to join mortar troop.

At first glance, the robotic mortar appears to make ‘tubes’ an endangered species. Indeed, the recent proliferation of ground-based autonomous vehicle companies in Ukraine would give you to think that the future of land warfare is automated.

But the flat farmland of Ukraine is a unique operating environment. Where air and sea are relatively uniform around the world, land is not.

Ukrainians are rightly making use of autonomous ground vehicles (AGLs) both for logistics and fire support, such is the drone-dominated nature of the battleground.

However, the technology is not as broadly applicable as its air and sea counterparts. It could not have navigated the drainage ditches of Helmand, or the bogs of the Falklands. That is good news for mortar troop.

FUNDRAISING

Sygaldry, an American developer of quantum-accelerated AI servers to exponentially speed up AI training and inference, raised a $139M Series A led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, with participation from Expeditions.

Spacety, a Chinese satellite manufacturing company, raised $190M in advance of an anticipated IPO.

Turion Space, an American developer of manoeuvrable satellites, raised a $75M Series B led by Washington Harbour Partners.

Portal Space Systems, an American developer of solar thermal propulsion systems for spacecraft, raised a $50M Series A co-led by Geodesic Capital and Mach33.

Ulysses, an American developer of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) and uncrewed underwater vessels (UUVs), raised a $38M Series A led by a16z.

Hybron, an American manufacturer of advanced composites, raised a £25M seed round led by Marque Ventures.

Kelluu, a Finnish autonomous airship startup, raised a €15M Series A led by NATO Innovation Fund (NIF).

Citra Space, an American company that identifies and tracks objects in orbit, raised a $15M Series A led by Washington Harbour Partners.

Archangel Lightworks, a British developer of laser communications and optical ground stations, raised a £10M Series A led by Santander Asset Management.

Stendr, a Norwegian developer of cost-efficient multi-sensor technology, raised a $5.4M pre-seed round co-led by Rainfall, ACME & Skyfall.

Pixel Photonics, a German developer of superconducting single-photon detectors, raised a €5M seed round led by Futury Capital.

Deteqt, an Australian developer of quantum sensing for defence applications, raised a $5M seed round led by Main Sequence Ventures.

Peak Quantum, a German developer of superconducting quantum chips aiming to reduce errors, raised a €2.2M round led by Cloudberry Ventures.

Sapient Perception, a Danish developer of UAV vision technology, raised a €2M pre-seed round co-led by Balnord and FORWARD.one.

Orbital, an American builder of solar-powered space-based data centers to run AI workloads in orbit, raised a $1M round led by a16z.

Qoro Quantum, a British developer of infrastructure for heterogenous computing networks, raised a $750K pre-seed round.

GOING PUBLIC

SpaceX, an American space company, officially filed for an IPO, seeking a valuation of $1.75T.

HawkEye 360, an American space company, filed for an IPO. It was valued at $2B in a recent $173M Series E.

Aevex, an American drone company, raised $320M in an IPO which valued the company at over $2B.